What happens if Pitt beats Miami? What happens if Miami beats Pitt?
What teams play in what BCS Bowls and why?

So many questions…I will do my best to answer.

Basically, the BCS Bowl selection process is complicated as all hell. The easy thing: this year, the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the BCS poll go to the Sugar Bowl.
The hard part is figuring out who else goes where.

The other Bowls (Fiesta, Orange and Rose) all have conference tie-ins that are in effect unless the champion of the tied-in conference is in the Sugar Bowl);
The Big12 champ to the Fiesta; The Big East OR ACC champ to the Orange; The Big10 AND Pac-10 champs to the Rose. These tie-ins are not written in stone, for a “host” team may be moved for the following reasons:

1) The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years;
2) Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season;
3) The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years;
4) An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

Pretty vague, eh? Well, it gets better.

If a tied-in conference champ is pulled to the Sugar, then the Bowl with the #1 team picks a replacement first (from the pool of BCS eligible teams), followed by the Bowl with the #2 team.
After this, the bowls that remain unfilled will submit a list of three teams as its top three choices, with any BCS conference champ required to be among its top two choices.
In a situation where two or more bowls select the same team(s) with their choices, the priority of selection would be the following:

1) The bowl making the larger per team payment shall be given first preference;
2) The bowl not getting first priority in the previous year, would be given first preference.

At the conclusion of these procedures, the pairings established by the BCS bowls may be adjusted by the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and interesting postseason matchups possible.

The Big East
The Big East conference tie breakers are as follows:

TWO-WAY TIE
1) Team A defeats Team B and is higher ranked – Team A earns bid.
2) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but in Top 10 – Team A earns bid (except if Team B is ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS poll, then Team B earns bid.)
3) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but no less than five positions below Team B – Team A earns bid.
4) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, and more than five positions below Team B – Team B earns bid.
5) If the two teams have the same ranking, or both are unranked, the bid goes to the team that has won the head-to-head contest.

How does this effect Pitt, if Pitt beats Miami? Well, in this scenario, WVU is team “A”, and Pitt is team “B”.
WVU is currently ranked below Pitt, and and since neither Pitt nor WVU are in the top-10 or top-2, then scenarios 1 and 2 do not apply. Pitt is currently ranked in the top 25, so if they win, they still will be. Thus, Pitt will get the BCS because of Scenario 4, with WVU un-ranked (or at least ranked well below Pitt, as they would be after a victory by Pitt over Miami). Scenarios 3 and 5 would not apply.

Of Miami wins against Pitt, then Scenario 2 (and 4, I guess) would put Miami in the BCS over WVU.

So – who would get to “host” the Orange Bowl? Florida State, the ACC champ, or Miami/Pitt, the Big East Champ? I imagine the higher ranked team would be the host (it doesn’t specify on the BCS site). Right now, that is FSU at #9, with Miami #10 and Pitt #25. If FSU beats #11 Florida, and Miami beats Pitt, the FSU victory will likely be more impressive, keeping FSU above Miami in the BCS. If Florida wins, then it’s possible for Miami to be the host, but not likely for Pitt if they beat Miami.

So, if Pitt wins, where do they go? If things stay as they are, OU and USC will be in the Sugar. Florida State in the Orange, Michigan in the Rose. That leaves the SEC Champ (LSU or UGa), Pitt, and two at large teams.
The Fiesta will pick a replacement for OU (assuming they beat KSU in the Big12 championship), followed by the Rose replacing USC. Pitt will almost certainly be the lowest ranked team in the BCS, given the large number of top 12 teams from the BCS conferences that have at least 9 wins.

My predictions:
Sugar: OU v. USC
Fiesta: LSU v. Pitt
Rose: Michigan v. Texas
Orange: FSU v. OSU

I am assuming that OU beats KState, and #3 LSU beats Georgia, thus the Fiesta picks LSU as their replacement.
Then, the Rose picks a replacement for USC, so it will pick Texas (won’t pick OSU because they already played Michigan, Texas is a huge school and the next highest ranked team).
It comes down to the Fiesta and the Orange. OSU was just in the Fiesta Bowl last year, plus the BCS won’t want the two worst teams (FSU and Pitt) to play each other. The Orange would be better for Pitt fans (ditto for OSU fans), but this will likely be the arrangement.

Now, if KState beats OU, OU is probably still in the title game. That means either OSU or Texas is out (probably Texas, since they are ranked lower than OSU, and two other Big12 teams would be in the BCS). If Georgia beats LSU, LSU probably wouldn’t fall as low as 5 or 6 in the polls. If both Georgia and KState win, then I can see OSU, Texas being out, and possibly LSU. What a cluster!

Now if Pitt loses, then the Gator Bowl gets to pick next. It is between Pitt and WVU, since WVU would only have 1 conference loss (assuming a victory over Temple), Pitt has two, and VaTech has three conference losses. The Big East has a “one loss rule” which mandates that a bowl must pick the best team (in-conference) or a team with only one more loss than the
best team. Pitt will likely get the nod, since we have Larry Fitzgerald and we are from a bigger market.

The Insight would HAVE to take WVU, with VaTech going to the Continental Tire, and the San Francisco Bowl (played at Pac-Bell of all places) will pick amongst BC, Syracuse (if they beat Rutgers) and Notre Dame. I include ND here because the Bowl games are supposed to weigh overall records when offering a bid, and ND can at best be 6-6, leaving them out of the running for games WVU (7-4) and VaTech (8-3) would be up for due to the one loss rule.

Now, this should all become much clearer this weekend…

I know that I oughtn’t (clever, huh?) complain about our beloved Panthers’ prime-time start on Saturday night (8 p.m.) but I do have one reservation: The start time means that I will be freezing my hindquarters off in a Pittsburgh parking lot at midnight.

I’m not just hoping for a victory, I’m also hoping for a swift conclusion to the game. It’s not so much the cold as it is my desire to “hit the town” afterwards and this late start time’s gonna nip that in the bud, I fear.

Of course, this desire is predicated on the hopes that many comely Hurricane alumni will be prowling the South Side and various other locales post-game, so I may be a bit blinded by a vain, vain hope. Of course, being a Pitt fan, this is nothing new for me.

There’s only one game that I’m really interested in this week, as many teams (e.g., the Big Ten) have already packed it in until their bowls. But let me put my disappointing 23-23-1 season record against the spread on the line and discuss that game.

#10 MIAMI (-3.5) AT #20 PITTSBURGH: Since October 11, 2003, the University of Miami has played five real opponents (sorry, Temple). The main thing that stands out about these five games is the appalling number of turnovers committed by the Hurricanes: they were intercepted 9 times and fumbled the ball 18 times — 8 of which were lost. These turnovers cost the Canes games that they otherwise might have won (e.g., against Tennessee and Virginia Tech) and made some victories seem closer than they otherwise would have been (e.g., against Syracuse and Florida State). However, the Hurricanes greatly reduced their turnovers last week (admittedly against Rutgers) by emphasizing the run and tailback Jarrett Payton far more than usual (43 rushes to 17 pass attempts). Given Pitt’s pathetic run defense, I can’t imagine why they won’t emphasize the run again this Saturday.

Miami Quarterback Brock Berlin, as was noted above, has been interception-prone. However, Miami’s aerial attack is still lethal. Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr. is the best in college football, if not exactly the brightest (eh, soldier boy?). Winslow nearly carried the error-prone Hurricanes through the 2003 Fiesta Bowl (against my Buckeyes) all by himself. Wide Receiver Ryan Moore is almost as fast and tall as Larry Fitzgerald. Our secondary will have to keep these burners in front of them while our front pressures Berlin into some of his typical mistakes.

I think that the most important key to this game will be whether or not we can stop the Canes’s ground game. If we can, I suspect that we will be able to pressure Berlin into tossing at least two picks. If not, I can’t imagine why Miami couldn’t drop at least as many points on us as West Virginia did. Thus, our defensive front must do a far better job of handling the opposing offensive line, closing gaps, and not overpursuing plays. Given that Miami’s offensive line is not as physically strong as West Virginia’s (although perhaps faster), I think we can partially accomplish that. I predict that Miami will score about 35 points on us.

On defense, Miami’s main asset is, as always, speed. The Canes limited Syracuse, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech to less than 85 yards through the air each. However, against Florida State’s speed receivers (who are probably more akin to Fitzgerald than anything the Orangepeople, Vols, or Castrated Turkeys have), the Canes gave up 235 passing yards. Furthermore, they gave up 213 passing yards to lowly Rutgers last Saturday (although they also picked off the Knights three times). However, Miami will be able to increase its odds against Fitzgerald and Company by dropping their linebackers into coverage or simply using a nickel or dime set… which they will do if we cannot run the ball.

To me, the second most important key to this game is whether or not we can run the ball enough to keep Miami’s defense honest. We couldn’t do that against West Virginia in the second half. But now we have Brandon Miree back. Being an Ohio State fan, I’m more than aware of how much a great running back can inspire an otherwise average offensive line (look at the difference between OSU’s offensive line with Maurice Clarett and without, even though not one lineman graduated). Besides, Miami has been more than a little suspect against the run versus the Hoopies and Hokies. So I’m predicting a revival of our ground game via Miree. If we can get close to 200 yards on the ground Saturday, opportunities will open up for Rod Rutherford, Kris Wilson, Princell Brockenbrough, and Larry Fitzgerald that have never been there before.

I say we score at least 35 points on the Hurricanes due to Miree’s return and the unique motivation of this truly do-or-die game. Thus, I’ll take Pitt and the 3.5 points, please. And remember that I’ve picked three of the last four Pitt games right against the spread.

Hail to Thanksgiving football games that enable me to avoid direct conversation with relatives.

I wrote this, Friday, August 8, 2003:

Anything less than winning the Big East will be a disappointment this year.

Let me now amend that to say:

Anything less than winning the Big East will be a bitter disappointment this year.

Pitt is the only “sleeper” BCS team left from the ESPN preseason predictions.

There is no understating the importance of this game for Pitt.

Strictly speaking, this Pitt-Miami game Saturday isn’t all-or-nothing for the Panthers. It just seems that way.

A season that began with great expectations, ends with two of the Panthers’ bigger goals still out there for the taking, those being getting a Big East championship and a Bowl Championship Series berth.

These are things that a torpedoing in Toledo, a Heinz humbling at the hands or Notre Dame, and even a Morgantown meltdown have failed to render unattainable.

Of course Coach Walt Harris is trying to downplay it.

But Pitt coach Walt Harris said he is not going to get caught up in the significance of the game.

“The focus is to win the Big East and whatever happens after that is great,” Harris said yesterday at his weekly news conference. “And, in order to win the Big East, we have to beat Miami. They are a challenging team. When you watch their athletes and study them, you see they had a couple of games where turnovers got them [or they’d be undefeated].

If Pitt wins, the Orange, Fiesta or Rose Bowl.

A loss and Pitt could fall all the way to San Francisco.

Here are the Pitt Game Notes.

The corresponding Miami Game Notes (both in PDF).

Sweet Joy. Looks like the Pitt-Miami game will be shown in Cleveland (and 74% of the country).

The depth charts don’t indicate that Miami Center, Joel Rodriguez, is out after breaking his leg against Rutgers.

Right now, I haven’t completed any real analysis of the teams and the match-ups.

I feel cautiously optimistic about the game, and find myself absolutely terrified at the prospect of Pitt being in control of its own destiny. A completely unnatural situation for Pitt. To be honest, Pitt has yet to show that they can step up, and win in this kind of game.

There are only 2 things I can t glean from the Pitt win over Temple.

1) Rod Rutherford had a real hangover from the 2nd half of the WVU game the week before.

2) We still don’t know about the running game.

Yes Miree came back and ran wild on the Owls, which I didn’t expect. But, that was against the Temple Owls. It tells me nothing.

As for Rutherford, he needs to shake off his funk or Pitt is sunk.

A little late, but here are some quick, lazy thoughts on college football this past weekend.

Syracuse wore the complete orange uniforms against WVU and deservedly lost.

I think WVU sent Boston College many, many “thank you and good luck in your future endeavors” cards for beating Virginia Tech and keeping the Hoopies from being screwed out of the Gator Bowl 2 straight years.

The real shame about Virginia Tech leaving the Big East, they just reached the point where it was fair to call them the Miami Dolphins of the Big East.

Ohio State lost badly to Michigan, when the defense finally had a bad game. Still, when the Buckeyes made it 28-21, and then intercepted John Navarre; anyone watching (or listening to) the game had to start thinkng, “Oh s**t, OSU is going to do it again.”

Jim Rome is a complete west coast homer. That wouldn’t bother me, except that he still claims otherwise.

If Pitt actually beats Miami and gets the BCS bid, look for plenty of national stories questioning how much Pitt truly deserves it.

Pitt actually controls its own destiny. That truly terrifies me.

I was out of town over the weekend, and busy Monday. Posting for the rest of the week may be hit and miss. Hitting the highways today for Thanksgiving.