Lee’s solid analysis can be found here.
This will be the 4th straight Big East team Pitt has faced with a solid running game. In only the Syracuse game, did Pitt hold the leading rusher to under 100 yards — because Syracuse coaches are idiots and didn’t run Reyes for 20+ times. So here’s the first thing. Pitt will not be able to keep WVU RB, Quincy Wilson, under 100 yards if he touches the ball for 22 or more carries (he averages about 4.7 yds/carry). He may still be a bit tender with a bruised lung, but I wouldn’t count on it. WVU runs the spread, and runs it well. That means quick or no substitutions on defense at many points and with a speedy QB, Rasheed Marshall, that is a threat to take off, the defense can be worn down by the 4th quarter — something that happened to Miami a month ago. Marshall, though is not a particularly accurate passer. He has a sub-.500 completion percentage and has rushed more times than he has completed passes (68-64). Adding to his speed, he has only been sacked 8 times all year (by comparison Rod Rutherford has been sacked 25 times), giving you a good idea about just how good WVU’s O-line can be in providing protection. Wit Pitt’s history of overpursuit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marshall end up running for 60-80 yards in the game. Of course, if that happens, Pitt will likely lose the game.
Pitt will have to keep Marshall in the pocket and keep him from turning the corner. Forcing WVU to win with the passing game is a big key for Pitt’s Defense. WVU has a good young receiver in Chris Henry, but not much of note behind him. This of course doesn’t help Marshall’s completion percentages.
On the Pitt offense, well there is still a lot of talk about WVU’s 3-5-3 defense. The pressure, though will be on their secondary — which is talking cocky. Pitt’s O-line has shown a steady improvement since it’s collapse against Notre Dame — at least in protecting Rutherford. Considering you never know if WVU will be coming with 3 to 8 men, it will have to continue it’s improved play. Pitt is obviously keyed by it’s passing game. Rutherford has had only one bad game — Notre Dame — otherwise he has been very, very accurate. His completion percentage is near 62% and that is with 288 attempts in 9 games. He has also been showing flashes of his old speed when he decides to take off. This will be very important given Pitt’s running game.
Obviously the receiving corp starts with Larry Fitzgerald. He will get his touches, and even with the 3-5-3 will pull extra coverage his way. The issue will be how TE Kris Wilson and #2 WR, Princell Brockenbrough play. One of the things about the 3-5-3 is it can clog the passing lanes, meaning the pass and the route have to be more precise. This could be a problem with Brockenbrough, who is not the most precise route runner (and has a propensity to run before he has possession). Wilson, though, is a very good route runner, so expect him to be the second leading receiver for Pitt in this game.
Pitt’s running game actually looked pretty good against Virginia Tech. Jawan Walker and Tim Murphy seemed to provide a good mix of running styles that helped eat the clock and keep drives going. Add in fullback Lousaka Polite for short yardage pushes, and I am cautiously optimistic that the Pitt running game can go for more than 100 yards between the three of them.
Pitt has a rep for a quick strike offense because of its passing game and Fitzgerald’s ability. This game, with the way the spread offense can wear out a defense, though, will require Pitt to chew the clock. Surprisingly, this is something Pitt has been doing the last 3 games. A lot of this has been because Pitt has taken early leads (except the BC game). If Pitt can get a quick lead and force WVU to throw more, the final score may not reflect how tough a game I believe this will be.
The game is a pick-em at this point, so I have to go with Pitt in a win that doesn’t look as close due to a late interception returned for a score. Pitt 31 WVU 20.
