I actually took around 7 pages of notes, but looking them over all I keep seeing are variations on things like this regarding Pitt on defense:

On offense, it looks like a lot of this

My game notes really ended sometime in the third quarter. I just ran out of ways to write that Pitt was missing tackles and the line play from Pitt was pathetic.

It was difficult to follow along when the clock went out sometime in the first half. No clue how much time was left.

Lee summed up most of the issues of the game. Most of it was stuff I was going to write. There are other aspects to this loss that I know will be written here in the next few days, but sticking to the game, and the coverage on ABC, I still have a few more things to add.

The ABC technical crew and producers are no where near as good as ESPN (I know, same company, but there is a difference). ESPN is on top of replays and getting the cameras into position to catch more than one angle. ABC skipped a lot of replays on some close plays and penalties. A lot of the time because Brent Musberger was too busy talking about something else, but it also seemed that they flat out missed getting a good shot.

About halfway through the second quarter, I nearly spit out my beer after a completion to Pitt TE, Kris Wilson, when Gary Danielson said, “No one really exploits the tight end position like Walt Harris.” It’s hard to believe an analyst even has a clue when he says something as idiotic as that.

At halftime, you could hear the boos from the crowd as Pitt ran off the field.

Jack Arute cornered Walt Harris for a quick interview before the break. Harris just looked confused and lost. That did not exactly inspire me as to what second half adjustments would be made.

After the half, Arute reported that the Pitt locker room was very, very quiet. More negative inspiration. When a football team is quiet at the half, that means they are down. Pitt needed to get mad, show some pride, get up and prove they could recover. The team’s body English looked defeated from the start of the second half.

Early in the 4th quarter (it was 10:30 pm), the cameras showed a wider shot of Heinz Field. The place was already more than half empty. I can’t blame anyone who left at that point.

I didn’t want to hear or read anything today, so I didn’t watch the ESPN College Gameday Scoreboard last night, and avoided SportsCenter all morning. I even avoided the sports sections. It has taken a while to even be willing to think about that debacle.

Well, the regular season is over for Pitt, and it looks like WVU is going to the Gator. I thought that Pitt might get the Gator even if they lost because of the Fitzgerald effect, but I guess the Gator Bowl committee didn’t ask me for my opinion…

The only upside to losing the way we did to Miami is it increases the chances that Fitzgerald will stay for one more season. There is no way he gets the Heisman now, and he may come back to try and get it. If I were him, I’d say “to hell with the Heisman, show me the money” and go pro, but I get the feeling he will stay and not challenge the NFL.

Pitt loses a lot of skill players even if Fitzgerald stays (QB Rutherford, FB Polite, RB Miree, TE Wilson, and our favorite, Shaunte Spencer at CB). Palko will be a pretty good replacement, and is probably a better raw QB than Rutherford, who did not benefit from having his own father as his HS coach. That kind of preparation, as well as 2 years to learn some of Harris’ system will help Palko perform better than your average redshirt sophomore.

What we need more than anything is a new offensive line coach, and perhaps a new strength coach. Harris, with all of his flaws, is still the reason why we compete for the skill recruits like Morelli, Johnson and Fitzgerald. If we answer the “fire Harris” call, we better be in a position to replace him with someone damn good. And I don’t mean John Cooper, Lee.

Harris should stay. Remember, Pitt was VERY bad for a VERY long time (at least in the world of college football). He brought us back to the point where we have high expectations again. Let’s not make the mistakes that Posvar made in getting rid of Fazio and Gottfried when they didn’t measure up to our expectations. We entered into the Hackett-Majors era because of those mistakes, and we are still paying the price.

Unless there is a better replacement who is willing to come to Pitt and make a committment to stay here, Harris is as good as we are going to get right now. Lets tweak where we need to tweak (line play, strength and conditioning) and see if we can’t get into the BCS next year when the Big East becomes the Big Least.

Don’t Fire Harris.

It’s now 11:55 PM, Eastern Standard Time, and the Pitt-Miami game has just ended. Miami dominated Pitt 28-14 (yeah, I’m surprised that the score was that close too… the game certainly wasn’t). At halftime, I noted that Pitt had to “stop the Canes’s running game, protect Rutherford, and start tackling” or this was going to get ugly. We certainly didn’t, and it certainly did. Here are my on-the-spot observations on the second half (my thoughts on the first half are here).

–Well, I guess we’re going to the Continental Tire Bowl to likely play a Virginia team that impressed me in beating up on Virginia Tech this afternoon. Oh well. At least we’re not going back to the Insight.com Bowl, our home away from home. And at least West Virginia won’t be screwed out of their rightful place ahead of us in the bowl pickings.

–And at least Fitzgerald got his TD. You just know that keeping him out of the endzone was a major goal for the Hurricanes. Still, even Brett Musberger couldn’t help but note the crowd’s derisive cheering when Fitz made his very first catch of the game… WELL into the third quarter…

–Pitt’s tackling continued to be awful in the second half. Claude Herriot, in particular, should be ashamed of himself. Even Gary Danielson was making fun of his missed tackles at one point.

–Which Miami running back wound up getting the most yards against our pathetic run defense: Moss or Payton? Aw heck, I don’t even care. Each had well over 100. We had to stop the run to win, we knew that we had to stop the run to win, and we couldn’t even begin to stop the run. A team that was as weak against the run as we were against Miami, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame doesn’t deserve to be in a BCS conference.

–Rod Rutherford got sacked 9 freakin’ times. Disgraceful. No wonder he threw 3 interceptions. Rod hasn’t looked that helpless since the Notre Dame game. Pitt’s offensive line should be lined up and put out of their misery like the lame mules that they are.

–Thanks to my picking Pitt to get within the spread on this game, my season record is now 23-24-1. Oh well. At least FOXSports.com/The Sporting News got this game wrong too. Personally, I thought that Pitt (1) would be able to at least slow down Miami’s rushing, and (2) run the ball more than a little itself. That’s why I picked Pitt. D’oh. Given the Panthers pathetic run defense all season long, I wonder how I persuaded myself that things would suddenly change now?

–Thank God Virginia Tech was ranked in front of us at the beginning of the season. Otherwise, the Pitt Panthers would clearly have been the most overrated team of 2003. I mean, seriously… people actually once thought that this was a top ten team!?

–So what is the final word on what was supposed to be Pitt’s big season? Disappointment? Sure. Disappointment so great that it could open opportunities for Penn State and West Virginia to get ahead of us in recruiting once again? Not this year, anyways. We’re pretty far ahead of both of them right now (in everybody’s opinion outside of State College). But still, we can’t survive many more seasons as disappointing as that one, or Rodriguez will snatch the “offensive genius” crown from Harris forever.

That does it. I’m going to freakin’ bed. Hail to Maryland pasting West Virginia again (in the Gator Bowl this time). Hail to Ohio State pasting Miami again (in the Orange Bowl this time). And for like the fifth time this season, hail to Pitt Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads and his staff getting the Frank Solich treatment.

Pathetic.

I will actually do a write-up later, but right now I’m just pissed off, tired and disgusted.

Pitt’s defense came out as flat as ever. Showed no heart, determination or ability.

It was like watching the Pitt-Notre Dame game from earlier this year, only Miami actually was competent on offense.

Bah.

It’s now 9:43 PM. The Pitt-Miami game is at halftime, and the Panthers trail the Hurricanes 21-7. Here are my on-the-spot observations of the first half.

–We certainly started out well. Our first drive focused on the ground attack. Brandon Miree had 5 carries for 24 yards. Princell “Blockhands” Brockenbrough made a key catch, and Kris Wilson caught the touchdown pass. Then we intercepted Brock Berlin on Miami’s next drive. Unfortunately, we peaked right about then.

–Due to a penalty and a sack, we wound up with a second and 21. And Walt Harris called two running plays?

–Then Miami’s running game kicked in. Moss ran right down the field. I said earlier this week that stopping Miami’s ground attack would be the biggest key to this game. Throughout the first half, we were increasingly unable to stop Moss and Payton.

–Then a 60 yard kick return by Allen was wasted when Rutherford got sacked. The second most disturbing trend in the first half was our inability to protect Rod. Rod never had time to see Fitzgerald half the time… let alone throw it to him.

–At the start of the second quarter, Miami ran it right down the field again to go up 14-7.

–On Pitt’s first drive of the second quarter, a couple of runs were stopped and Rutherford got sacked. Each one of these events were met with boos easily heard over ABC television.

–A beautiful 78 yard screen play, sprung by some nasty blocking by Canes Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr., set up an easy Jarrett Payton touchdown. 21-7 Miami.

–After Pitt went three-and-out yet again, Miami had a half decent drive going down the field. The third most disturbing trend of the first half was Pitt’s poor tackling on defense. Gary Danielson made a big deal of this during this drive, and justifiably so.

So there you go. If we don’t stop the Canes’s running game, protect Rutherford, and start tackling, this is gonna get ugly.

See you at the end of the game.

I won’t get another chance to post. Family things tonight, and on the road all day tomorrow. Then planted on the couch to watch the game. The good news, it has gotten cold in Western Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio, meaning Pitt should have a slight edge with the weather and my Yuengling will stay cold all the way back to Cleveland.

This is the final game of the regular season. Time for reflection for seniors and teams.

This being the final game in the Big East for Miami, there is a look at their “legacy.” There is no denying it has been an impressive run.

Final games for seniors. Kris Wilson, Corey Humphries, Lousaka Polite, but especially Rod Rutherford.

And he has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in school history regardless of what happens in the Panthers’ final regular-season game. He is not satisfied with that; not when a much bigger prize is well within his reach.

No. 20 Pitt (8-3, 5-1 Big East) plays host to No. 10 Miami (9-2, 5-1) at 8 p.m. tomorrow at Heinz Field. The winner gets at least a share of the Big East Conference championship and, more importantly, will earn the conference’s automatic BCS berth.

If Rutherford leads the Panthers to a victory, he would go from being an just another excellent player to one of Pitt’s all-time greats. He understands this, but said he and the other seniors already have accomplished far more than anyone thought possible.

This is also the game that could, ahem, ice Larry Fitzgerald’s Heisman campaign. A big national game in 74% of the country over Thanksgiving weekend.

The Big East knew what it was doing when it made Miami-Pittsburgh the final game of the season.
…
ABC is doing its part by making UM-Pitt the lead national Saturday night telecast at 8 p.m. When the network TV schedule came out in August, Notre Dame-Stanford was the primary prime-time game. But the Irish are 4-6, the Cardinal just as bad, and ABC needed a better game.

UM-Pitt was projected as a day game but moved to night and given to most of the nation. Chicago, Indiana and the West Coast get Notre Dame-Stanford.

With Miami leaving for the Atlantic Coast Conference next year, the game has even more intrigue, and the conspiracy people believe that ABC’s night switch — with the weather forecast calling for sub-freezing temperatures and a chance of snow — was made to help Pittsburgh.

That’s just the way the schedule broke. Last year, UM ended the season against Virginia Tech at the Orange Bowl.

Then there is just how much this game means to Pitt and why so many others want Pitt to win. Forty years ago, Pitt was the #4 team in the nation and did not play in a bowl game. It was supposed to play the in the Orange Bowl, but things just “happened.” A win tomorrow, and the Orange Bowl would be the likely destination. It would be a nifty symmetry.

There is of course the rest of the Big East rooting for Pitt, not to mention the payout Pitt would receive for going to a BCS bowl.

So let’s look at the game. Lee had a solid breakdown here.

Generally speaking line play is where all games are won and lost. Pitt’s defensive line this year, to be polite, has sucked with occasional flashes of competence. Miami’s offensive line is in disarray with their senior center out. Miami will be juggling their line and moving players to different positions. This match-up can’t be predicted. Miami QB Brock Berlin has been wildly inconsistent, and even benched for a game. (Did anyone think at the beginning of the season that the best college QB in the State of Florida would be Leak at U of Florida over Rix (FSU) and Berlin?) Even with the Miami line intact, they have had a hard time scoring. Running behind the Miami line will be Tyrone Moss and Jarret Payton. Payton tends to be fumble prone, and in the cold might be more so. Moss is more talented, but his inexperience has led to more dancing behind the line. Miami’s passing game starts and ends with TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. Look, I keep typing this stuff, trying to get a read on the situation, but I’m not reaching a conclusion. I feel like I’m babbling. I honestly don’t know about Pitt’s defense versus Miami’s offense in all levels. I have no clue which players, which team will really show up in this game. I want to have some faith in the Pitt D showing up and making plays at home, in the cold; but they have fallen flat in the big games this year. The best I can hope for is that Miami helps to beat itself with turnovers. Something that I actually expect if Pitt can get an early lead.

Pitt’s offense will have to make the difference from the beginning. Virginia Tech showed that Miami does not play well from behind. They rely on their defense to make the plays and keep them in the game while the offense sputters through. The Miami defense is not Oklahoma or Ohio State caliber, but it is one of the best in the country. It is especially good with it’s secondary. This is also Pitt’s strength. Again, the question is, will Rutherford snap out of his game and a half funk. He can’t be errant like he was against Temple and in the second half of WVU. He has to throw early and often to Larry Fitzgerald. Force Miami to understand just how many bodies they will have to put on Fitzgerald. Hopefully this will open up things a little more for TE, Kris Wilson and WR, Greg Lee (I just don’t trust Brockenbough).

Then there is Pitt’s running game. Miree will be playing, but it won’t be against Temple. Miami, though, has been victimized by strong running backs. Since no one saw the Temple game, we don’t know whether Miree was moving north/south or did he dance much behind the line before moving. Against Miami, Miree will have to be pushing forward.

Special teams hasn’t been much for either team, and the weather may make the kickers non-existent.

I’m terribly afraid to pick Pitt, since they actually control their own destiny — and haven’t been able to do anything when given the chance before — but when it comes down to it. I have a hard time picturing Pitt not getting at least 20 points, and Miami having a real difficulty getting much more than 17.

So here it is, Pitt to win 28-21 in the reverse score of last year.

Let us pray.

Now I’m nervous. Both the Associated Press and (more importantly) FOXSports.com/The Sporting News have picked Pitt to upset Miami outright tomorrow night. FoxSports/TSN had this to say about the game…

Why Miami might win: Miami has sputtered and coughed on offense, but when it comes to the really, really big games, the defense finds a way to come through with a win. It held tough against Syracuse when it had to and turned in a great performance against Florida State. Pittsburgh’s attack is solid with the Big East’s top ranked offense, but the Cane defense thrives on the national spotlight and the pressure. Even though the Canes are favored, most of the pressure is on Pittsburgh at home.

Why Pittsburgh might win: It’s not just that Miami’s quarterbacks stink, it’s that the quarterbacks aren’t doing anything. Brock Berlin has completed 6 of 15 passes for 86 yards, but threw two scores in his last two games. Derrick Crudup has been even worse completing 6 of 16 passes for 87 yards with a touchdown and a score. If the Panthers can somehow D up against the run, Berlin and Crudup shouldn’t be able to beat them.

Who to watch: It’s all about Larry. Every team keys on Fitzgerald, but no one has the talent in the pass defense to stop him like Miami does. Fitzgerald has ten 100+ yard days in his 11 games this year with 21 scores, but this will be his biggest test yet. On the flip side, the Cane defensive backs can make bigger names for themselves if they take away No. 1.

What will happen: Miami will keep Fitzgerald in check, but TE Kris Wilson and RB Brandon Miree will pick up the slack just enough to get past the down Canes.

Line: Miami -3.5

Must See Rating: (5 must see – 1 The Cat in the Hat) … 5

Fearless Prediction: Pittsburgh 20 … Miami 16

Really, the reason they think that Pitt will win isn’t all that far from the reasons I gave for Pitt at least staying within the spread.

FOXSports/TSN’s Fearless Predictions (once again, apparently somebody else has trademarked “Fearless Forecasts”) have been pretty solid so far this season. Hail to their staying that way.

You can’t expect a lot of information filtering out on Thanksgiving day. There’s a nice piece on 1976 Heisman winner, and Pitt legend, Tony Dorsett stumping for Larry Fitzgerald for the Heisman.

The monthly negative Pitt column from Bob Smizik is out. The topic, one of his annual chestnuts — even if Pitt wins on Saturday, they could lose.

What happens if Pitt beats Miami and then goes on to a major bowl game and wins there, too? The Panthers will be 10-3 and in all likelihood ranked in the top 10.

There’s a sizable market out there for top 10 coaches, particularly those who have raised programs from the dead and who can legitimately claim the unofficial but highly impressive title of quarterback guru.

Would Harris leave Pitt?

If a better opportunity were presented to him, it’s hard to imagine him not at least considering it.

Yeah, yeah. Whatever. This is the same type of column Smizik writes every year because it’s easy. It’s completely speculative, and perfect filler material. Plus, if it actually happens he can claim he saw it coming first. If it doesn’t happen, it can be conveniently ignored.

Other useless thoughts.

This will be Pitt’s sixth night game this season.

Pitt is 2-3 this year at night. 2-1 at home. 0-2 on the road.

This will be Pitt’s fifth game televised by ESPN/ABC.

Pitt is 2-2 in these games. 1-0 on ABC regional coverage. 1-2 on ESPN/ESPN2.

And finally, a quick revisit to some preseason predictions of Beano Cook:

Well, let’s take ND, first — they will finish 10-2. Penn State will finish 9-3 with a chance at 10-2.

Not quite. Try again, next year.

Mix in the Dolphins playing Sunday night and Thanksgiving day, coupled with extended Marlins coverage; and finally the fact that Miami won’t be playing for the national championship — you get very bland and not much Florida coverage of the Pitt – Miami game.

The lead stories are mainly about Pitt superstar WR, Larry Fitzgerald, and how to cover him. Miami hasn’t allowed a WR to have a 100 yard game since playing Penn State in the beginning of the 2001 season. It would be nice symmetry to have the next one come at the end of this season against Pitt.

Right now the pieces are mainly individual player puff pieces or other matchups — like Miami Butkus Award finalist, Jonathan Vilma, who was humiliated last year from a wicked lowered shoulder from Pitt QB, Rod Rutherford.

No one is sure what the Miami offensive line will look like with senior center Joel Rodriguez out with a broken fibula. Apparently there will be plenty of shuffling of positions.

Finally, one of the notebook pieces has the usual pap about how both coaches would like to see the “rivalry” continue. You can’t call it a rivalry when Miami has dominated it so badly. Not that I wouldn’t mind Pitt still playing Miami — and lord knows Pitt will need to beef up its non-conference schedule — but don’t call it a rivalry.

What happens if Pitt beats Miami? What happens if Miami beats Pitt?
What teams play in what BCS Bowls and why?

So many questions…I will do my best to answer.

Basically, the BCS Bowl selection process is complicated as all hell. The easy thing: this year, the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the BCS poll go to the Sugar Bowl.
The hard part is figuring out who else goes where.

The other Bowls (Fiesta, Orange and Rose) all have conference tie-ins that are in effect unless the champion of the tied-in conference is in the Sugar Bowl);
The Big12 champ to the Fiesta; The Big East OR ACC champ to the Orange; The Big10 AND Pac-10 champs to the Rose. These tie-ins are not written in stone, for a “host” team may be moved for the following reasons:

1) The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years;
2) Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season;
3) The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years;
4) An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

Pretty vague, eh? Well, it gets better.

If a tied-in conference champ is pulled to the Sugar, then the Bowl with the #1 team picks a replacement first (from the pool of BCS eligible teams), followed by the Bowl with the #2 team.
After this, the bowls that remain unfilled will submit a list of three teams as its top three choices, with any BCS conference champ required to be among its top two choices.
In a situation where two or more bowls select the same team(s) with their choices, the priority of selection would be the following:

1) The bowl making the larger per team payment shall be given first preference;
2) The bowl not getting first priority in the previous year, would be given first preference.

At the conclusion of these procedures, the pairings established by the BCS bowls may be adjusted by the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and interesting postseason matchups possible.

The Big East
The Big East conference tie breakers are as follows:

TWO-WAY TIE
1) Team A defeats Team B and is higher ranked – Team A earns bid.
2) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but in Top 10 – Team A earns bid (except if Team B is ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS poll, then Team B earns bid.)
3) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, but no less than five positions below Team B – Team A earns bid.
4) Team A defeats Team B and is ranked lower, and more than five positions below Team B – Team B earns bid.
5) If the two teams have the same ranking, or both are unranked, the bid goes to the team that has won the head-to-head contest.

How does this effect Pitt, if Pitt beats Miami? Well, in this scenario, WVU is team “A”, and Pitt is team “B”.
WVU is currently ranked below Pitt, and and since neither Pitt nor WVU are in the top-10 or top-2, then scenarios 1 and 2 do not apply. Pitt is currently ranked in the top 25, so if they win, they still will be. Thus, Pitt will get the BCS because of Scenario 4, with WVU un-ranked (or at least ranked well below Pitt, as they would be after a victory by Pitt over Miami). Scenarios 3 and 5 would not apply.

Of Miami wins against Pitt, then Scenario 2 (and 4, I guess) would put Miami in the BCS over WVU.

So – who would get to “host” the Orange Bowl? Florida State, the ACC champ, or Miami/Pitt, the Big East Champ? I imagine the higher ranked team would be the host (it doesn’t specify on the BCS site). Right now, that is FSU at #9, with Miami #10 and Pitt #25. If FSU beats #11 Florida, and Miami beats Pitt, the FSU victory will likely be more impressive, keeping FSU above Miami in the BCS. If Florida wins, then it’s possible for Miami to be the host, but not likely for Pitt if they beat Miami.

So, if Pitt wins, where do they go? If things stay as they are, OU and USC will be in the Sugar. Florida State in the Orange, Michigan in the Rose. That leaves the SEC Champ (LSU or UGa), Pitt, and two at large teams.
The Fiesta will pick a replacement for OU (assuming they beat KSU in the Big12 championship), followed by the Rose replacing USC. Pitt will almost certainly be the lowest ranked team in the BCS, given the large number of top 12 teams from the BCS conferences that have at least 9 wins.

My predictions:
Sugar: OU v. USC
Fiesta: LSU v. Pitt
Rose: Michigan v. Texas
Orange: FSU v. OSU

I am assuming that OU beats KState, and #3 LSU beats Georgia, thus the Fiesta picks LSU as their replacement.
Then, the Rose picks a replacement for USC, so it will pick Texas (won’t pick OSU because they already played Michigan, Texas is a huge school and the next highest ranked team).
It comes down to the Fiesta and the Orange. OSU was just in the Fiesta Bowl last year, plus the BCS won’t want the two worst teams (FSU and Pitt) to play each other. The Orange would be better for Pitt fans (ditto for OSU fans), but this will likely be the arrangement.

Now, if KState beats OU, OU is probably still in the title game. That means either OSU or Texas is out (probably Texas, since they are ranked lower than OSU, and two other Big12 teams would be in the BCS). If Georgia beats LSU, LSU probably wouldn’t fall as low as 5 or 6 in the polls. If both Georgia and KState win, then I can see OSU, Texas being out, and possibly LSU. What a cluster!

Now if Pitt loses, then the Gator Bowl gets to pick next. It is between Pitt and WVU, since WVU would only have 1 conference loss (assuming a victory over Temple), Pitt has two, and VaTech has three conference losses. The Big East has a “one loss rule” which mandates that a bowl must pick the best team (in-conference) or a team with only one more loss than the
best team. Pitt will likely get the nod, since we have Larry Fitzgerald and we are from a bigger market.

The Insight would HAVE to take WVU, with VaTech going to the Continental Tire, and the San Francisco Bowl (played at Pac-Bell of all places) will pick amongst BC, Syracuse (if they beat Rutgers) and Notre Dame. I include ND here because the Bowl games are supposed to weigh overall records when offering a bid, and ND can at best be 6-6, leaving them out of the running for games WVU (7-4) and VaTech (8-3) would be up for due to the one loss rule.

Now, this should all become much clearer this weekend…

I know that I oughtn’t (clever, huh?) complain about our beloved Panthers’ prime-time start on Saturday night (8 p.m.) but I do have one reservation: The start time means that I will be freezing my hindquarters off in a Pittsburgh parking lot at midnight.

I’m not just hoping for a victory, I’m also hoping for a swift conclusion to the game. It’s not so much the cold as it is my desire to “hit the town” afterwards and this late start time’s gonna nip that in the bud, I fear.

Of course, this desire is predicated on the hopes that many comely Hurricane alumni will be prowling the South Side and various other locales post-game, so I may be a bit blinded by a vain, vain hope. Of course, being a Pitt fan, this is nothing new for me.

There’s only one game that I’m really interested in this week, as many teams (e.g., the Big Ten) have already packed it in until their bowls. But let me put my disappointing 23-23-1 season record against the spread on the line and discuss that game.

#10 MIAMI (-3.5) AT #20 PITTSBURGH: Since October 11, 2003, the University of Miami has played five real opponents (sorry, Temple). The main thing that stands out about these five games is the appalling number of turnovers committed by the Hurricanes: they were intercepted 9 times and fumbled the ball 18 times — 8 of which were lost. These turnovers cost the Canes games that they otherwise might have won (e.g., against Tennessee and Virginia Tech) and made some victories seem closer than they otherwise would have been (e.g., against Syracuse and Florida State). However, the Hurricanes greatly reduced their turnovers last week (admittedly against Rutgers) by emphasizing the run and tailback Jarrett Payton far more than usual (43 rushes to 17 pass attempts). Given Pitt’s pathetic run defense, I can’t imagine why they won’t emphasize the run again this Saturday.

Miami Quarterback Brock Berlin, as was noted above, has been interception-prone. However, Miami’s aerial attack is still lethal. Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr. is the best in college football, if not exactly the brightest (eh, soldier boy?). Winslow nearly carried the error-prone Hurricanes through the 2003 Fiesta Bowl (against my Buckeyes) all by himself. Wide Receiver Ryan Moore is almost as fast and tall as Larry Fitzgerald. Our secondary will have to keep these burners in front of them while our front pressures Berlin into some of his typical mistakes.

I think that the most important key to this game will be whether or not we can stop the Canes’s ground game. If we can, I suspect that we will be able to pressure Berlin into tossing at least two picks. If not, I can’t imagine why Miami couldn’t drop at least as many points on us as West Virginia did. Thus, our defensive front must do a far better job of handling the opposing offensive line, closing gaps, and not overpursuing plays. Given that Miami’s offensive line is not as physically strong as West Virginia’s (although perhaps faster), I think we can partially accomplish that. I predict that Miami will score about 35 points on us.

On defense, Miami’s main asset is, as always, speed. The Canes limited Syracuse, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech to less than 85 yards through the air each. However, against Florida State’s speed receivers (who are probably more akin to Fitzgerald than anything the Orangepeople, Vols, or Castrated Turkeys have), the Canes gave up 235 passing yards. Furthermore, they gave up 213 passing yards to lowly Rutgers last Saturday (although they also picked off the Knights three times). However, Miami will be able to increase its odds against Fitzgerald and Company by dropping their linebackers into coverage or simply using a nickel or dime set… which they will do if we cannot run the ball.

To me, the second most important key to this game is whether or not we can run the ball enough to keep Miami’s defense honest. We couldn’t do that against West Virginia in the second half. But now we have Brandon Miree back. Being an Ohio State fan, I’m more than aware of how much a great running back can inspire an otherwise average offensive line (look at the difference between OSU’s offensive line with Maurice Clarett and without, even though not one lineman graduated). Besides, Miami has been more than a little suspect against the run versus the Hoopies and Hokies. So I’m predicting a revival of our ground game via Miree. If we can get close to 200 yards on the ground Saturday, opportunities will open up for Rod Rutherford, Kris Wilson, Princell Brockenbrough, and Larry Fitzgerald that have never been there before.

I say we score at least 35 points on the Hurricanes due to Miree’s return and the unique motivation of this truly do-or-die game. Thus, I’ll take Pitt and the 3.5 points, please. And remember that I’ve picked three of the last four Pitt games right against the spread.

Hail to Thanksgiving football games that enable me to avoid direct conversation with relatives.

I wrote this, Friday, August 8, 2003:

Anything less than winning the Big East will be a disappointment this year.

Let me now amend that to say:

Anything less than winning the Big East will be a bitter disappointment this year.

Pitt is the only “sleeper” BCS team left from the ESPN preseason predictions.

There is no understating the importance of this game for Pitt.

Strictly speaking, this Pitt-Miami game Saturday isn’t all-or-nothing for the Panthers. It just seems that way.

A season that began with great expectations, ends with two of the Panthers’ bigger goals still out there for the taking, those being getting a Big East championship and a Bowl Championship Series berth.

These are things that a torpedoing in Toledo, a Heinz humbling at the hands or Notre Dame, and even a Morgantown meltdown have failed to render unattainable.

Of course Coach Walt Harris is trying to downplay it.

But Pitt coach Walt Harris said he is not going to get caught up in the significance of the game.

“The focus is to win the Big East and whatever happens after that is great,” Harris said yesterday at his weekly news conference. “And, in order to win the Big East, we have to beat Miami. They are a challenging team. When you watch their athletes and study them, you see they had a couple of games where turnovers got them [or they’d be undefeated].

If Pitt wins, the Orange, Fiesta or Rose Bowl.

A loss and Pitt could fall all the way to San Francisco.

Here are the Pitt Game Notes.

The corresponding Miami Game Notes (both in PDF).

Sweet Joy. Looks like the Pitt-Miami game will be shown in Cleveland (and 74% of the country).

The depth charts don’t indicate that Miami Center, Joel Rodriguez, is out after breaking his leg against Rutgers.

Right now, I haven’t completed any real analysis of the teams and the match-ups.

I feel cautiously optimistic about the game, and find myself absolutely terrified at the prospect of Pitt being in control of its own destiny. A completely unnatural situation for Pitt. To be honest, Pitt has yet to show that they can step up, and win in this kind of game.

There are only 2 things I can t glean from the Pitt win over Temple.

1) Rod Rutherford had a real hangover from the 2nd half of the WVU game the week before.

2) We still don’t know about the running game.

Yes Miree came back and ran wild on the Owls, which I didn’t expect. But, that was against the Temple Owls. It tells me nothing.

As for Rutherford, he needs to shake off his funk or Pitt is sunk.

A little late, but here are some quick, lazy thoughts on college football this past weekend.

Syracuse wore the complete orange uniforms against WVU and deservedly lost.

I think WVU sent Boston College many, many “thank you and good luck in your future endeavors” cards for beating Virginia Tech and keeping the Hoopies from being screwed out of the Gator Bowl 2 straight years.

The real shame about Virginia Tech leaving the Big East, they just reached the point where it was fair to call them the Miami Dolphins of the Big East.

Ohio State lost badly to Michigan, when the defense finally had a bad game. Still, when the Buckeyes made it 28-21, and then intercepted John Navarre; anyone watching (or listening to) the game had to start thinkng, “Oh s**t, OSU is going to do it again.”

Jim Rome is a complete west coast homer. That wouldn’t bother me, except that he still claims otherwise.

If Pitt actually beats Miami and gets the BCS bid, look for plenty of national stories questioning how much Pitt truly deserves it.

Pitt actually controls its own destiny. That truly terrifies me.