Personally, I think that this is going to be the most exciting weekend of college football so far this season. My wife and I even bought a new big screen television for it. We’re going to host a small party for the Ohio State-Penn State game, which will obviously be our big event Saturday (I already discussed this game here). Jen thought that she might need some support from some fellow Nittany Lions in case my Buckeyes really start rolling. But I’ll also have my eyes on such tasty morsels as Oklahoma State-Oklahoma, Washington State-USC, Michigan-Michigan State, Miami-Virginia Tech, and especially Pitt-Boston College. Let me discuss the last three of these matchups and then pick them against the spread, putting my pathetic season record of 15-18 on the line (note that I already picked Ohio State (-7) at Penn State here).
PITTSBURGH (-1) AT BOSTON COLLEGE: Let me break my analysis down into the standard “Football for Idiots” format.
When we have the ball: In general, Boston College’s pass defense has had some troubles this season. Notre Dame — which couldn’t throw the ball for squat against anybody else (including Pitt) — ripped Boston College for 350 yards through the air last Saturday. Heck, even Syracuse passed for 215 against the Eagles. In a solid piece of analysis, Chas noted that BC has a pair of very short cornerbacks who will likely require some help
from their safeties in stopping a tall, super-fast receiver like Larry Fitzgerald. This could open up some opportunities for some underneath passes to Tight End Kris Wilson or some of the other receivers. Furthermore, it could create some holes for our running game — depending on how BC’s linebackers play the situation.
And our running game will need all of the help it can get. Boston College’s run defense has been very tough… at times. Although Notre Dame (who ran all over us) could only muster 47 yards on the ground against Boston
College, Syracuse (who we held to 44 rushing yards) piled up 192. Go figure. In any case, our running game (both our all-too-timid backs and our often-out-physicalled offensive linemen) hasn’t needed anybody else’s help to suck so far this year. And BC should be tougher against the run than Syracuse was.
So this Saturday, I figure that Pitt should basically pass to set up the run. Start lobbing bombs to Fitz until the underneath passes and the running opportunities open up. Of course, this strategy depends on excellent pass
protection from our improving-but-still-shaky offensive line. Thus, offensive line play will be one of the most important keys to Pitt’s success this Saturday — although minimizing turnovers is always important too.
When Boston College has the ball, they will want to run first and foremost. Tom O’Brien likes a solid ball control offense, and why not? BC’s tailback, Derrick Knight, is the nation’s leading rusher. Even though he twisted his ankle against Notre Dame, he and his backup Horace Dodd still pounded out 147 yards on the ground. But the Eagles can throw too — passing for 249 yards against Syracuse (vs. our 310) and 199 against Notre Dame (vs our 167).
Pitt’s defense will have to be very physical up front. Boston College’s offensive line is one of the best in the Big East, and O’Brien (if he’s smarter that Pasqualoni) will run it down our throats all day. And here is where I think the game will turn. If Pitt’s defense can slow Derrick Knight and Horace Dodd while occasionally pressuring Quinton Porter into making bad decisions, we will win.
Call me a sudden optimist, but I think that our defense can do that. Playing one of the ACC-bound traitors should provide some motivation towards that end. And even if it doesn’t, Boston College will more than likely screw up on special teams at least once. I’ll (gulp) take Pitt to cover, please.
MIAMI (-3.5) AT VIRGINIA TECH: I genuinely believed Frank Beamer when he said that this was his best team ever at Virginia Tech. And that’s what made that 28-7 asskicking in Morgantown so hard for me to understand. I mean, I know very well that nobody self-destructs like the Hokies. But still, that talented of a rushing attack and a quarterback should have been able to muster something in the third or fourth quarters… I mean, maybe not enough to win… but at least something…
Well, Virginia Tech won’t self-destruct two games in a row, especially with their season on the line in the national spotlight. Likewise, Quarterback Bryan Randall will probably never play that poorly again (I’m not sure that it’s physically possible). And I am giving Virginia Tech’s offensive line a slight advantage over Miami’s defensive front (no more of that weird 3-3-5 crap). So I expect the Hokies to put up a much better fight on offense Saturday (especially on the ground) than the last time I saw them.
Unfortunately, Miami’s going to get a few chances to play offense too. And I just can’t see Tech’s secondary keeping up with Miami’s speed receivers and tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. all game long. Being an Ohio State fan, I own the DVD of last January’s Fiesta Bowl and watch it frequently. I still can’t understand how the hell Ohio State (even with one of the nation’s best defenses) kept those burners in front of them. Now Beamer, can, should, and probably will try to keep the Hurricanes’s offense off the field with a nice ball control offense — and he certainly has the tools to accomplish that (I like Kevin Jones even better than Maurice Clarett). But I’m betting that sooner or later Tech’s gonna get lit up through the air.
Like most of America outside of south Florida, my heart will be with the Hokies to redeem themselves here. But my brain says to never bet against Miami in an important game that doesn’t involve Ohio State. I’ll take the Hurricanes to cover.
MICHIGAN (-4) AT MICHIGAN STATE: Michigan State is the feel-good story of college football this year and everybody’s second favorite Big Ten team. Previously unheralded Head Coach John L. Smith has brought the Spartans and their recovering-from-addiction quarterback (Lancaster County, PA native) Jeff Smoker back from a 4-8 record to currently lead the Big Ten Conference. I think I can safely say that most of us are rooting for the Spartans to snatch the Paul Bunyan Trophy from the Wolverines in one of the leagues best rivalry games.
Admittedly, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. But more importantly, the team in this series with the most productive ground game was won 32 of the last 33 games. So who would you rather have running the ball: (Lebanon County, PA native) Jaren Hayes or Chris freakin’ Perry? Exactly. Come to think of it, which quarterback would you rather have: Smoker or John Navarre? And which defense would you rather have?
Once again, my heart will be with the Spartans here. But I think that the clock is about to strike midnight, just as it did for the other Cinderella Purdue last Saturday. I’ll unfortunately have to take the Wolverines to cover.
So I got the Buckeyes, Panthers, Hurricanes, and Wolverines — all to cover. I guess I’m not seeing any upsets after that debacle in Morgantown. But how much should you trust the vision of a man who’s only 15-18?
Hail to the Hokies and Spartans Proving Me Wrong
