Yes, last week was an absolute disaster for Pitt football, the Big East Football Conference, and my picks against the spread (my season record is now 11-12). However, I — like Chas — realize that it’s time to “cowboy up” (damn… that is irritating). So here are the games that I’m most interested in for this week.

(deservedly unranked) PITT (-15.5) AT (perpetually unranked) RUTGERS: How will the Panthers rebound from getting absolutely dominated by lowly Notre Dame last Saturday? My guess is that they won’t rebound for two reasons (or two sets of reasons).

First and foremost, Pitt Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads has proven over and over again that he cannot coach fundamentals (tackle, don’t just hit like you did especially against Notre Dame and Texas A&M), cannot improve any strategic facet of Pitt’s defense over time (has our run or pass defense really improved since Kent State?), cannot inspire (has our defense been fired up at any point this year?), and cannot make halftime adjustments of any kind (even when Pitt did make halftime adjustments for like the first time ever against Texas A&M, the defense wasn’t really part of it).

Second, I’m guessing that the Panthers will not rebound from the Notre Dame loss because our offense just demonstrated to the world how we can be stopped (just pressure Rod Rutherford and the running-back-of-the-day), our offensive line hasn’t improved all year either (and will thus likely continue to let blitzers and just plain defensive linemen past on a semi-frequent basis), and most frustratingly of all, our offensive/quarterback genius of a head coach hasn’t shown any creativity at all in playcalling. I mean, where was the shovel pass, bootleg, screen, or other blitz-countering play last Saturday?

So given all of this, I think that pretty much the same team that left Heinz Field last Saturday night will show up in New Jersey this Saturday (as well as against Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Miami). Rutgers shouldn’t have much trouble staying within 15.5 points of that squad.

TEMPLE (+31) AT #2 MIAMI: Thirty-one points is one heck of a spread to cover when you’re sandwiched between a Florida State game and a Virginia Tech game. Plus, Temple didn’t look too awfully terrible against an admittedly-depleted Penn State squad in August. So I’ll take Temple and the points, please.

BOSTON COLLEGE (-3.5) AT SYRACUSE: Ah, poor Syracuse… She was once one of the prettiest and most popular girls in high school… a lock to join the ACC along with Boston College and Miami. But thanks to (1) a lot of groveling, begging, and pleading from Virginia Tech in Richmond, and (2) the graces of the University of Virginia (and don’t ever forget that, Hokie-fan), Virginia Tech got itself invited to the ACC dance instead. Now Syracuse looks like the fat girl who couldn’t even slut herself into a respectable date. No Big East school should feel as jilted as Syracuse.

So into the Carrier Dome comes Boston College, the last girl to get invited to the dance before the gymnasium doors closed forever. Do you think that the Orangemen and their fans are going to feel a little bitter?

So far this year, loyal Big East Football Conference members have performed pitifully against their departing-for-the-ACC foes. It changes here. Syracuse matches up fairly well against BC, and the Carrier Dome crowd should carry them the rest of the way. I’ll take Syracuse and the 3.5.

#9 IOWA (+3.5) AT #8 OHIO STATE: Lost in the loss to Wisconsin and the swarm of Robert Reynolds apologies to everybody but Jim Sorgi is the fact that Ohio State (unlike Pitt) definitely improved over its bye week. Although the Buckeyes couldn’t entirely stop Wisconsin’s run, they did slow it down and bring the Badgers’s passing game to a near halt (with one major exception).

Unfortunately for us Buckeyes, Iowa is a much better team than Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes’s solid defense should smother what little offense the Buckeyes have, and the Hawkeyes’s offense should pass their way to a close but comfortable victory. So I’ll take Iowa and give the points.

MISSOURI (+26) AT #1 OKLAHOMA: Jesus, the Sooners are good. I mean, they haven’t shown a single offensive or defensive weakness yet. So they’re more than due for a letdown, and the Tigers are hot coming off of that win against Nebraska. Gimme Mizzou and the points.

So this week, I got the Scarlet Knights, Owls, Orangemen, Hawkeyes, and Tigers. After going all out for the favorites last week, I’m going overboard on the dogs this week.

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Not that anybody asked, but here’s LEE’S TOP TEN FOR THIS WEEK.

1. Oklahoma: How far ahead of the rest of the country can one team be?
2. Virginia Tech: Like the Sooners, the Hokies haven’t showed any real weaknesses yet. Unlike the Sooners, the Hokies haven’t played anybody yet either. That’ll change next Saturday, when they beat the hell out of…
3. Miami: Damn good team. But not as good as last year’s team. Enjoy your last week in the national championship hunt, gentlemen.
4. Georgia: Losing to LSU in one of the at least six “Death Valleys” in college football was no big thing. It beats losing to Toledo in the Glass Bowl. Still, the Dawgs have looked hot every time I’ve watched.
5. Washington State: I’m serious now… how the hell did you guys lose to Notre Dame!?
6. USC: The Trojans’s hosting Washington State will be the second most important game of November 1 to me (Ohio State at Penn State being the first).
7. Iowa: Not as good as last year. But with Ferentz at the helm, the Hawks will always be deadly.
8. Ohio State: Yeah, so the bubble finally burst. This is still a talented team. At least they’re better than…
9. Florida State: You suck, Bowden. Any real coach would have passed JoePa decades ago.
10. LSU: Anybody who beats Georgia should be in the top ten, even if the Bayou Bengals collapse like clockwork every November.

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In case anybody didn’t catch my comment on Chas’s post from Monday, I have changed my position on Pitt and the Big East Conference. Previously, I believed that Pitt should stay in the Big East because the road to a BCS bowl game would almost certainly be easier from the new Big East than it would be from the Big Ten or the ACC. However, now that Boston College has fled to the ACC, I believe that the Big East will lose at least part of its access to the BCS bowls after 2005. I think that the Big East will likely have to share a bowl berth with the suddenly (thanks to BC) more deserving Mountain West and MAC. And this will NOT be an easier road to the BCS bowls than the Big Ten or ACC.

So it’s time for Pitt to start kissing up to Park Ridge, Illinois and (if need be) Penn State. We should want in the Big Ten now.

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Hail to Firing Paul Rhoads Now, Dammit

I started looking at the Pitt Panther stats through the first 5 games (PDF). There are some numbers that just jump out at you.

Opponent Total Offense (Pitt/Opp.)
Kent State 522/161
Ball State 473/284
Toledo 389/551
Texas A&M 478/544
Notre Dame 175/385

After the first 2 games, Pitt’s vaunted offense has been outgained every game.

Or how about through 5 games Pitt’s Defense has 5 sacks and 4 interceptions.

Suddenly the question isn’t, “How is Pitt only 3-2?” It becomes:

“How is Pitt not 2-3?”

I’m now very worried about Rutgers.

I just found some of Walt’s actual quotes (at least as released by the Pitt Athletic Department) to help deal with the “confusion.” Here’s a doozy.

Are you concerned that the defense can’t pick up on offensive schemes?
“Notre Dame found out their problem over their first four games and we thought that we had improved offensively. Our problem was that we really didn’t know what our problems were as well as Notre Dame did. We thought that that wouldn’t be our problem. We know that they were good and we alerted the players as well as everybody else in this room. We knew that they were a good defensive team. When we play our game, we don’t turn the ball over. Our defensive saved us by stopping them deep in our territory near the end of the half. They scored on a dropped punt. A couple plays each way made it difficult.”

Emphasis added.

Soooooo … Pitt was outcoached, and outprepared in addition to being beaten off the lines. I feel better.

In the days leading up to the game, the Pitt Athletic Department decreed requested that fans wear gold clothing to the game to support the team. Presumably it was trying to create it’s own version of the “white out” (an NHL tradition started by the Winnipeg Jets, brought to Phoenix when the team moved, and subsequently used by college basketball arenas everywhere), or “orange crush,” “green wave,” with, with a … “golden shower?”

Needless to say, it failed miserably. Since Pitt went to incorporating the worst aspects of Indiana athletic teams (Purdue Gold and ND Blue) almost all the apparel Pitt sells is blue with gold accents. Oh, some tried, but they tended more to yellow than gold. Dumb, dumb, dumb idea. Someone in marketing needs a beating.

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review columnist, Joe Starkey has a great column on confusion and Walt Harris — with Harris supplying the material from his Monday press conference.

Walt Harris wanted to make something clear at his mind-boggling news conference Monday: His players are hesitant, not confused.

He was speaking in the aftermath of Pitt’s 20-14 loss to Notre Dame, in which the Panthers were pushed around like lawn furniture.

“I always say a confused football player is not an aggressive football player,” Harris said. “I think ‘confused’ is probably a little bigger word than I thought would happen. I just think we got a little hesitant and weren’t as physical as we needed to be, especially on offense.”

Huh?

If Harris was trying to convince us that he doesn’t confuse his players, he had a rather, um, confusing way of demonstrating it.

It’s no wonder his record after off weeks is 5-8, including a loss to Temple. More time off obviously means more time to confound everyone.

The whole column is like this. Great fun.

Meanwhile at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Ron Cook picks up my thoughts on Harris’ play-calling/time-out burning play calling problem in a column detailing some depressing figures about Harris and big games at home.

Harris’ startling admission about the confusion on the Pitt sideline, which resulted in the Panthers wasting their three timeouts early in the second half, was telling: “It is difficult to call plays when you are not sure what is going to work.”

A rough translation: “I froze when things got tight.”

Apparently, confusion is a team-wide problem at Pitt. Harris’ explanation for poor defensive performances against Texas A&M and Toledo? Alignment difficulties. How can a well-coached team not align properly? By all accounts, that wasn’t a problem Saturday night. Unfortunately, it didn’t keep Julius Jones from rushing for a Notre Dame record 262 yards or keep the Irish from killing the final 9:14 of the game.

Hard to imagine that after last season, Pitt fans were worried that Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads might leave for a head coaching job at a mid-major or take a similar position at a bigger school. I’d say the bloom is off his rose.

On Sunday morning I had some time before heading back to Cleveland. I stopped for a walk in Oakland (the part of Pittsburgh where the campus is located for those who are unaware). Decided to look around the Pitt Shop. In the discount bin were t-shirts puffing the Pitt-ND game (white t-shirts, btw) with the phrase “History will be made at Heinz Field.” These $18 t-shirts were only marked down 40%. Really, they should have been boxed up and sent overseas to the poor like they do with the superbowl attire they print up for the losing team. Take the loss and get them out of sight.